How Four Key Trump Claims About The Iran War Have Fallen Apart

 

Several of President Donald Trump’s key claims about the war with Iran have fallen apart.

Some of Trump’s claims were obviously untrue at the time he made them. Some were boasts that had a factual basis at the time but ceased to be true as the war continued. And others were assertions about what would supposedly happen in the near future but didn’t.

In congressional hearings Tuesday and Wednesday, Democrats pressed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz over some of the Trump administration’s previous declarations about the war. Here’s a look at four claims Trump has made:

Trump’s claims: Trump repeatedly claimed this spring that Iran’s military capabilities had been entirely eradicated.

For example, he said in March, “Everything they have is gone, including their leadership.” He said in April, “They can’t fight back.” He said in May that Iran’s “military is totally gone” and that “we’ve totally destroyed their military.” He said in early July, “Look, they have no military left.”

How the claims fell apart: Even after Trump’s remarks, Iran was able to launch military attacks on US forces, US allies in the region and commercial ships – and kill and injure American servicemembers.

Even before these Iranian attacks, it was clear that Trump wasn’t telling the truth about the state of Iran’s military. CNN reported in the spring that US intelligence had found that Iran continued to have considerable military capabilities and was rapidly rebuilding various capabilities that had been weakened in the war. And Trump intermittently acknowledged on various occasions that Iran still had “some” missiles and drones, though he emphasized how much Iranian material had been destroyed.

Trump’s claims: Trump initially said the war would take mere weeks.

“It’s always been about a four-week process so – as strong as it is, it’s a big country, it’ll take four weeks – or less,” The Daily Mail quoted him as saying in an interview in early March. In a New York Times interview the same day, he said, “Well, we intended four to five weeks,” adding, “It won’t be difficult.” In late March, he said, “We estimated it would take approximately four to six weeks to achieve our mission” and that they were “really a lot ahead of schedule.”

Trump also made a series of vaguer claims that the war would end fast, saying in March that it would be over “pretty quickly” and in May that “we’re gonna end that war very quickly.”

How the claims fell apart: Like previous US wars, this one has proved much tougher to conclude than the president in power first suggested. Nearly five months after Trump launched the war, the fighting continues – and he threatened an escalation on Wednesday, vowing to destroy one Iranian bridge or power plant every time Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump’s claims: On July 13, Trump posted that “the Hormuz Strait is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran,” declaring that the US would be “from this point forward, known as ‘THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT.’” He said in an interview the same day: “Well, we’re taking over the strait. They have nothing.” Then, on Sunday, Trump made an even stronger claim: “We control the strait. They [Iran] don’t control anything.”

How the claims fell apart: As was obvious when Trump made these claims, Iran retains significant control over the Strait of Hormuz even as the US Navy imposes a blockade against ships sailing to or from Iranian ports. Iran claimed responsibility for attacks on ships in the area of the strait on Monday and Tuesday; the Joint Maritime Information Center led by the US Navy reported Tuesday that commercial traffic in the strait “fell to a three-week low” during the last 48 hours, that Iranian “harassment activity” against merchant activity in the strait “persisted,” and that “recent attacks on tankers in Omani waters further influenced operator behaviour and contributed to significantly reduced traffic density.”

Trump’s claims: Trump has tried in recent weeks to promote a triumphant narrative about oil prices.

In the second half of June, amid the ceasefire with Iran in place at the time, he boasted that “oil prices are way down” and declared that “it’s soon going to be at the number that it was four months ago,” before he launched the war in late February. He then claimed on July 8, “You see the oil prices are lower than they were when I started” and that “the prices of oil are dropping like a rock”; he conceded that the resumption of violence that day would be sending prices “up a little bit,” but he added, “This will end very quickly.” And he asserted in a social media post Sunday that oil prices were among those “dropping FAST.”

How the claims fell apart: Oil prices were indeed down significantly in late June and the beginning of July from the wartime highs of March and April, and they did briefly fall below prewar levels. But then they spiked again after the ceasefire collapsed and the US and Iran resumed regularly attacking each other. Neither the violence nor the increase in oil prices ended quickly after July 8, the day Trump said he thought the ceasefire was over; oil prices were increasing, not “dropping FAST,” last week and early this week.

On Wednesday, the global oil benchmark Brent crude settled at $94.07 a barrel, up about 3.4% on the day; that was its highest settle level since June 8. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $86.83 a barrel, up about 3% on the day; that was its highest settle level since June 11. Both Brent and WTI crude were more expensive than they were when Trump started the war and when he returned to office in January 2025.

Trump vowed again during a Wednesday speech in Georgia that the price of oil is “going to be tumbling down” as it was three weeks ago. He urged Americans to “just give me a little time.”

SOURCE: CNN