2016: Hopes And Fears Of A Leap Year

In this piece, TUNDE ODESOLA examines the events likely to shape the country’s political outlook in the leap year

For the discerning, the clear handwriting on the wall needs no interpretation; the time of famine is catching up on a profligate nation of thieving, shameless leaders and a largely brainwashed following.

For Nigeria, today is the first blank page of a 366-page book that would either see the nation sink further into the pit of backwardness or offer a life-saving straw to remain afloat in the sinking boat rocked by corruption, ineptitude, ethnicity and nepotism.

The first coming

For this twenty-third child of his parents, Muhammadu Buhari, who snatched power in a military coup on December 31, 1983, and ruled till August 27, 1985, the nation’s power dynamics as a civilian President since May 29, 2015, when he assumed power again, has changed.

As military Head of State, Maj.-Gen Buhari’s word was law. No camera ever caught him and his fiercer-looking deputy, Major General Tunde Idiagbon, laugh in public.

When Buhari was a military Head of State between 1983 and 1985, the price of crude oil per barrel oscillated between $59 and $69 – using 2013 value of the dollar.

It is on record that he broke ties with the International Monetary Fund, which asked his junta to devalue the naira by 60 per cent. The military regime, among other things, reduced the balance of payment deficit by cutting imports even as it cut 15 per cent off the Alhaji Shehu Shagari administration’s budget it inherited and also reduced prices of goods and services. The biggest talking point of his government was the clamping into jail politicians from all the major geopolitical regions of the country.

The second coming

During this period, Buhari needed not the judiciary or the legislative arms of government to promulgate or enforce laws. But now, the music is no more martial. Call it Pop, Juju, R&B or Highlife, the music of today’s politics is not very familiar to Buhari.

He summed it all when he said in a presidential chat on Wednesday that he became a democrat in April 2002, stressing, however, that he still has an unshakable intolerance for corruption.

Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy operated a budget of N2.1trn in 2015 with oil price falling from $62 per barrel in January to $36.99 in December. The nation’s economy in 2016 is largely expected to be funded by earnings from oil sale. With the sharp decrease in the country’s oil resources occasioned by global slump in oil prices, budget implementation in the new year would be a herculean task for the Buhari administration just as not less than 27 states of the federation have become insolvent.

Another critical area of Nigeria’s socio-economic life that the Buhari administration needs to look into is the distribution of fuel across the country. Although the 50 kobo reduction in the price of petrol by the government did not evoke praise from the generality of Nigerians, adequate supply of petroleum commodities would do if the government facilitates appropriate supply mechanism. The image of the government took a dip during the just-ended two-and-a-half-month fuel scarcity that ravaged the country.

Critical sectors of the economy

Aside from the arduous financial challenges set to confront the nation in 2016, it is largely left to be seen whether or not the hurdles of insecurity, power supply and unemployment are scalable. If the Minister of Power, Works and Housing, Babatunde Fashola, walks the talk, Nigeria would be on the path to self rediscovery and hope.

Nigeria, with her oil wealth and population, could only generate 4,143.87 megawatts of electricity to a population of over 160 million when Egypt with a population of 83 million generates 30, 000 megawatts of electricity annually. With a population of 52 million, South Africa produces 47,890 megawatts of electricity annually. The levels of development in both South Africa and Egypt underscore the importance of power supply to any economy.

During his maiden briefing after assuming power, Fashola, who met with the directors of his ministry, said security, war against corruption and revitalising the economy remained the cardinal objectives of the Buhari administration, adding that the ministries of works, power and housing would play an enormous role in actualising the change agenda of the government.

He said, “Clearly, good roads will help reflate and grow our economy, reduce travel time, cost of transportation of goods and services, and restore jobs that have been lost to transport dependent services. They will improve safety of lives and property and our security index.

“Predictable, stable, and ultimately uninterrupted power supply will be a critical and defining component of our economic renaissance, job creation, GDP growth and reduction of income inequalities.

“Construction of houses will complement the economic growth drive by direct and indirect jobs in the housing value chain from construction companies to artisans, labourers, vendors and many more.”

Election disputes

In 2015, the annulment of the election of Abia State Governor, Okezie Ikpeazu, by the Court of Appeal, in Owerri, Imo State, on Thursday, was the climax of the chain of electoral disputes being heard in courts across the land.

The allegations of corruption against judges hearing election petitions across the country have been left to fester – in the main, fuelling the agitation that the National Judicial Council must make scapegoats of corrupt judges.

The governorship election petition brought against River State Governor and Peoples Democratic Party candidate, Nyesom Wike, by the All Progressives Congress candidate, Dakuku Peterside, has been taken to the Supreme Court. The Appeal Court had nullified the election and ordered a fresh poll but Nyesom, faulting the ruling, took the case to the apex court.

Also, in Akwa Ibom, the election petitions tribunal annulled the governorship election in 18 local governments of the state even as the Court of Appeal sitting in Abuja, on December 17, 2015, cancelled the entire election and ordered a fresh election within 90 days. The state governor, Udom Emmanuel, was the candidate of the PDP in the election while Umana Umana was the candidate of the APC in the election.

In Bayelsa State, the candidate of the PDP and governor of the state, Seriake Dickson, and the APC candidate, Timipre Sylva, are still at each other’s neck with the tribunal ordering fresh election in the southern-Ijaw area of the state.

If the PDP loses in these states, a death knell would have been sounded on the opposition party with the likelihood that Nigeria might turn into a one-party state.

Corruption trials

Dasuki
The ongoing corruption trials by the Buhari administration would be a major watershed of the government in the new year. Currently being investigated are a former National Security Adviser, Col. Sambo Dasuki (retd.); a former Minister of Petroleum Resources, Diezani Alison-Madueke, and a former Chairman, DAAR Communications, Chief Raymond Dokpesi, among others. Dasuki is being probed over an allegation that he mismanaged $2.1bn arms funds while Dokpesi is being probed over N2bn Peoples Democratic Party campaign funds.

Both Dasuki and Dokpesi had pleaded not guilty to the corruption charges levelled against them.

Buhari, during the presidential chat, said some of those who looted the nation’s treasury had started returning parts of their loot, adding that he preferred to remain silent on the issue for the time being.

He said, “Money has been recovered but the fact (is) that whatever we recovered, we have to end up in court because Nigerians are entitled to know the truth and the truth will be what the court has discovered by submissions made to them in terms of documentation, including the bank statements where it was lodged, how it was lodged, whether it is petrol (funds), money from NNPC or money from Customs, or money directly from the Central Bank, when we do that, Nigeria will be better.”

With the way the trial is going, indications are rife that former President Goodluck Jonathan might be called to questions. The national body of PDP vice-chairmen, on Wednesday, in Abuja, said that it did not ask any of its members who were indicted of corruption charges to steak for the party.

A communiqué by the National Vice-Chairman of the party in the South-South, Cairo Ojugboh, said this on Wednesday, adding that the party was in support of President Buhari’s anti-corruption war.

The communiqué read, “The body affirms that if corruption is not eradicated, the growth of Nigeria as a nation will remain stunted. We, thereby, dissociate the party completely from any corrupt practices while the party was in power.”

The opposition party also asked the President to beam his searchlight on any member of the APC, including ministers, accused of corruption.

Pro-Biafran agitation
Kanu
The trial of the leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra, Nnamdi Kanu, would be another touchy issue in 2016. Kanu, who is currently standing trial for treasonable felony, was accused of calling for the secession of the South-East and South-South parts of the country from Nigeria. Although Kanu had been granted bail, the Federal Government has levelled fresh charges against the suspect.

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo described the agitation for Biafra as being done by idle, money-seeking youths, whom he said had no reason for their action.

Obasanjo said, “This is a fake agitation. You people make a mountain out of a molehill. These are boys who want to take people unawares and get money out of them in the name of Biafra. These are the people you should ignore, I don’t talk about Biafra. (Philip) Effiong came and said Biafra ceased to exist and since that day, Biafra has ceased to exist.”

Commenting on the pro-Biafran issue, Buhari on Wednesday said, “And the one that is being called Kanu; do you know he has two passports? One Nigerian, one British and he came to this country not using any passport.

Do you know he brought in sophisticated equipment into this country and was broadcasting for Radio Biafra? Which kind of government do you want to have? You want him to be granted bail to go away? That is treasonable felony and I hope the court will listen to the case.”

By December 17, 2016 Buhari would be 74 years old. How would he score his administration’s performance for the year? Would his administration get a fail or a pass grade?