Subsidy Was The Right Reform; The Question Is What We Did With The Opportunity

By Kelvin Uwaibi

The problem was not necessarily the decision to remove the subsidy. The problem was that we did not adequately prepare the country for the consequences of removing it. A reform of this magnitude should never be treated as merely an accounting exercise. When you remove a subsidy in an economy where transportation costs affect the price of food, where businesses depend heavily on diesel and petrol, where electricity supply remains inadequate and where millions of households have little financial cushion, you are not simply changing the price of petrol. You are changing the cost structure of the entire economy. That requires preparation.

Nigeria must be careful not to allow the current political debate over fuel subsidy to become a distraction from the deeper question before the country: Are Nigerians better off today, and are we building a country that gives Nigerians a fair chance to prosper tomorrow?

I believe the removal of the fuel subsidy was, in principle, the right economic decision.

For years, Nigeria maintained an expensive and increasingly unsustainable system that consumed enormous public resources, distorted the market, encouraged arbitrage, and disproportionately benefited those who consumed more fuel. The World Bank had warned that maintaining the subsidy would continue to impose a significant fiscal burden, while its removal could create much needed fiscal space.

So, let us be honest with ourselves.

The problem was not necessarily the decision to remove the subsidy. The problem was that we did not adequately prepare the country for the consequences of removing it.

A reform of this magnitude should never be treated as merely an accounting exercise.

When you remove a subsidy in an economy where transportation costs affect the price of food, where businesses depend heavily on diesel and petrol, where electricity supply remains inadequate and where millions of households have little financial cushion, you are not simply changing the price of petrol.

You are changing the cost structure of the entire economy.

That requires preparation.

It requires targeted social protection.

It requires mass transit.

It requires food production and distribution reforms.

It requires support for small businesses.

It requires stronger local refining capacity.

It requires a deliberate programme to reduce the cost of logistics and energy.

And, above all, it requires trust.

There is evidence that the broader reforms have produced important macroeconomic gains. Nigeria’s fiscal position and external balances have improved, investment sentiment has strengthened, and economic growth has continued. Recent government figures also point to stronger oil production and increased fiscal space.

But macroeconomic stability cannot become an excuse for ignoring the kitchen table.

The World Bank itself has acknowledged the continuing burden of high food prices and poverty, noting that the cost of a basic food basket has risen dramatically and that poor households, which devote a very large share of their income to food, have been hit particularly hard.

The humanitarian situation should concern every Nigerian who cares about the future of this country. Current projections indicate that almost 35 million Nigerians could face acute food insecurity during the 2026 lean season.

This is where our political conversation should begin.

Not with arguments designed merely to win the next election.

Not with promises to reverse every difficult decision.

And certainly not by deceiving Nigerians into believing that there are painless solutions to problems accumulated over decades.

We must tell Nigerians the truth.

If an opposition party believes subsidy should be restored, let it explain clearly how it will finance it without creating another fiscal crisis.

If the government believes its reforms are working, let it demonstrate transparently how the savings and additional revenues are being converted into better lives for ordinary Nigerians.

Let us debate the numbers.

Let us debate the policy.

Let us debate the alternatives.

But let us not insult the intelligence of the Nigerian people.

Nigerians have lived through these years. They have paid the higher transport fares. They have watched food prices rise. They have adjusted their businesses, reduced consumption, changed where they live and work and, in many cases, made extraordinary sacrifices simply to survive.

Nigerians will make their judgment at the polls.

They do not need politicians to tell them what they have experienced.

What Nigerians need from leadership is empathy, honesty and competence.

Across the world, Nigerians continue to demonstrate extraordinary talent. In technology, medicine, finance, academia, entrepreneurship, science and the creative industries, Nigerians are building companies, creating jobs, solving problems and making our country proud.

The tragedy is that too many of those Nigerians are doing so despite the limitations of the Nigerian system rather than because of it.

We must therefore ask a more fundamental question:

How do we build a Nigeria where the ordinary citizen can experience the same possibility that Nigerians abroad are demonstrating every day?

The answer cannot be another subsidy.

Neither can it simply be subsidy removal.

The answer is a productive economy.

An economy where energy is reliable.

Where food production is competitive.

Where transportation is affordable.

Where businesses can access capital.

Where government spending is transparent.

Where infrastructure lowers the cost of doing business.

Where social protection reaches the genuinely vulnerable.

And where economic growth translates into jobs, income and dignity.

The subsidy debate should therefore be an opportunity for national reflection, not political manipulation.

Removing the subsidy may have been necessary. But removing it was never the end of the reform. It was the beginning of a much larger responsibility.

The responsibility now is to ensure that the fiscal space created by difficult reforms becomes economic opportunity for ordinary Nigerians.

That is the real test of leadership.

And that is the conversation Nigeria deserves.

We must never be afraid to tell Nigerians difficult truths.

But equally, we must never become so obsessed with economic numbers that we forget the human beings behind them.

A government must balance the books. But a government must also balance the burdens placed on its people.

Nigeria can do better.

Nigeria must do better.

And we should be mature enough to pursue that objective without deceiving our people simply to win the number one seat.