Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s decision to send defense minister Rustam Umerov to meet with a low-level Russian delegation in Istanbul was a difficult choice forced by necessity. Its audience is one man: US President Donald Trump.
Kyiv must show it is willing to take any step at all to foster any kind of peace, or else it risks Trump slowly finding the pro-Kremlin voices around him rising in volume, getting bored of the processes entirely, and/or limiting aid to Ukraine.
But ultimately, the peace process is going exactly how Russia wants it to. Slowly, and with the Kremlin as its scheduler.
The main revelation so far is that the Kremlin is unafraid of further sanctions, of European pressure, and not cajoled by Trump. For now, Russian President Vladimir Putin sees the potential domestic pitfalls of a photo opportunity alongside the US president and his Ukrainian enemy to be far greater than the possible damage incurring Trump’s wrath may cause.
His rejection of this initiative is a calculated risk that may already be paying off. Trump’s reaction – to suggest “nothing is gonna happen” until he and Putin meet – throws all expectations for diplomacy to the wind until the pair have a bilateral summit. It permits Putin to pursue any course at liberty, aware the White House head does really believe there can be progress until the two presidents meet in person.
It is not impossible a bilateral meeting could happen soon, or even that the talks in Istanbul on Friday could spawn a leadership summit at the weekend. But Putin is likely relishing seeing the peace process inch forwards with just enough faux sincerity that the White House won’t drop it. Why rush? His forces are amassing near the eastern frontline, clearly with a larger Russian strategic objective in mind.
CNN
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